Gordon outside looking in after only two Chase races?

1. Jeff Gordon is 122 points behind Chase leader Mark Martin. Gordon has two victories at Kansas. Does he have to win again there Sunday to stay in it?

David Caraviello: He has to win somewhere, and Kansas may be his best bet, given his track history there. I mean, he's good at Charlotte, but so is Jimmie Johnson. He's good at Martinsville, but so is Jimmie Johnson Of all the tracks remaining, this may be Gordon's best one, and he needs to make up some ground somewhere. This could be one of his only chances to do that.

Joe Menzer: That depends on what Mark Martin and the other six guys in front of him do. If he beats all of them and finishes second or third, he's still in it to win it. But obviously if he finishes behind Martin and several of the others, he's in serious trouble.

Duane Cross: Even if Gordon wins at Kansas, does anyone think Jimmie Johnson won't finish second? Even with Martin holding a 10-point advantage after two races, guys, this is just another week in the countdown to coronation of the No. 48 team. Eight drivers already are more than 100 points behind. The reality is that this isn't going to be a nail-biter down the stretch.

Joe Menzer: I hate to agree with Duane right off the bat, but the truth is that Gordon and most of the rest of the Chase field already is in serious trouble. The 48 is going to be tough to beat. But DC, why such a pessimist? This absolutely has the potential to go down to the wire. The 48 will be there, no doubt, but Martin, Juan Montoya and maybe even Denny Hamlin might jump up there to challenge. And don't rule out Tony Stewart just yet, either. Or Gordon.

David Caraviello: Joe, I don't buy this argument that you can second and third people to death. Eventually, you're going to have to win. More than once, ideally. That's how Johnson and Co. operate, and to beat them, you have to do it at their own game. All the third-place finishes in the world will net you only second place eventually.

Joe Menzer: Oh, I never said he wouldn't have to win somewhere. In fact, I made that point about Montoya in my column the other day. It's great that he's consistently running top five now, but he's got to win somewhere if he's truly going to contend for this thing. Same with Gordon, or anyone else. I don't believe anyone will win the Chase without winning at least once within this Chase.

David Caraviello: We hear it every year before the Chase starts -- oh, maybe you won't have to win. Maybe 10 top-fives will do it. And then Johnson starts knocking out trophies and people finishing sixth wind up feeling sick. The reality is, you look at what he did at Dover, and you look at his history at Martinsville and California, and you may have to win three times to stay in the ballgame. Really, how many guys in this Chase field are capable of doing that?

Duane Cross: I'll disagree that you cannot second- and third-place people to death. If you finish second 10 times, that's at least 1,700 points -- and yes, you can win the title with 6,700 points (Johnson totaled 6,684 last year -- and that included three wins in the Chase). Yes, it can be done.

David Caraviello: And the likelihood of that happening is .000000048 percent, and involves Jimmie Johnson falling off the face of the planet. That's why I never bought this "deepest Chase field ever!" argument so many guys were trying to make. Going in, I thought only three or four drivers realistically had a chance. There's a long way to go, but now, it's beginning to look like a two-man show.

Joe Menzer: This must be what used to happen to the rest of the golfing world when Tiger Woods seemed so invincible. A little of that has worn off, but guys were just figuring the top dog is so good, they don't have a chance. And when they think that, they don't.

Duane Cross: Joe, where's the love for Kurt Busch? He's still within shouting distance.

Joe Menzer: I'm figuring Martin, Montoya, Hamlin, Stewart and Gordon still think they've got a chance. As for Kurt, I know he currently sits in fourth. But even though he's won one race this year to JPM's none, I just don't think they've got the equipment to get it done.

Duane Cross: David and I are in agreement -- it's Johnson's to lose. Two races in, and it's that apparent. Martin will fade.

David Caraviello: Well, I don't think Martin will necessarily fade. But I also don't think he's going to beat Jimmie, either. And if Jeff doesn't win some races, he's going to struggle to stay in it.

Duane Cross: "Fade" in the sense that Martin won't be there with two, three races to go. Jimmie will be on cruise control at Homestead. (Continued)