Not quite time to crown Johnson the '09 champion

I've been hearing it all week long, "The Chase is already over." Really, it is? Wow, is everybody honestly that convinced Jimmie Johnson is just going to run away with this thing? Did anyone consult the other 11 drivers about this?

I realize how we are trained to think after the past three years. Once the 48 team gets out front, it really is over. But I'm not so convinced that is the case with the Chase of 2009. While history may tell us differently, I think this story is far from written just two races in. In fact, I think this might be the most competitive Chase yet.

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You have the storied run of Mark Martin (who by the way is still the championship leader, even though many have anointed Johnson as champ), plus the ultra fiery Juan Montoya is still within striking distance. So don't give up on the 2009 Chase ... it is indeed not over.

TIER ONE

Mark Martin (No change)

Mark Martin did not have a second-place car at Dover. But what do championship teams do? They finish better than where they ran during the race and that's exactly what the No. 5 team did last Sunday.

It's hard to believe that Martin has finished first and second in the first two Chase races and has lost part of his championship lead! That's just how good the competition is in the Chase this year. Martin should be terrific at Kansas this week.

Remember his dominant win at Chicagoland in July? Martin led 195 laps and won at the identical twin race track to Kansas. During the race Martin was effusive, calling his car "the best car he had ever sat in." Pretty high praise from old man Martin. So which car is Martin racing this weekend? You got it. Crew chief Alan Gustafson is bringing the Chicago winner to Kansas. Mark Martin is my overall race favorite for the weekend.

Jimmie Johnson (No Change)

As predicted right here, Jimmie Johnson showed his Dover dominance once again last Sunday. We talked about how the tire test in August was an advantage for Johnson and Juan Montoya ... boy did that ever show last Sunday. Yes, championship "switch" is definitely on at the 48 shop.

Here's a story that will be repeated throughout the 2009 Chase ... now we head to a track where Johnson won this race last year. So, of course, most race fans are predicting that Johnson will run away with it once again. While I think Johnson will be good, no doubt, I think his teammate Mark Martin will be slightly better.

Johnson has been strong at the intermediate tracks this year, leading laps and running consistently in the top five but something always seems to happen to the No. 48 on the last few runs of a race this year, specifically at these intermediate tracks. "Something happening" has meant everything from handling, to parts breaking, to fuel mileage.

But check out these amazing numbers. At the tracks that fall into this category (California, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Texas, Charlotte, Michigan and Chicago ... nine races all told so far in 2009) Johnson has led an incredible 538 laps and has exactly ... one top-five (that was his second at Texas where he only led one lap) and no wins to show for it.

Now for the big question, do I expect that trend to continue? With the No. 48 team in "championship mode" there is a good chance it will not. But even Chad Knaus will tell you, if you look at a nine-race average, there's something there. Should be very interesting to see what happens to the No. 48 team this weekend.

Juan Montoya (No change)

Remember back to the beginning of the Chase when we talked about Juan Montoya needing to "survive" the first few races of the Chase? So much for that! Montoya has thrived in the first two races with top-fives at two tracks where he had never finished in the top five before. If you still don't believe Montoya is a threat to win the title you should reconsider.

Montoya is now coming to his tracks of strength in the Chase ... Kansas, California and Charlotte all fit Montoya's style. Also for the third consecutive race in the Chase, crew chief Brian Pattie has decided to bring a brand new car to Kansas. At first I thought a new car for the first two Chase races was a risky move but whatever they are building at the Earnhardt Ganassi shop, keep it coming because the strategy has worked. Throw out all of the preconceived notions and past stats, JPM should prove to be a championship threat all the way to Homestead.

Denny Hamlin (No change)

We talked last week about Dover being a survival race for Denny Hamlin. In many respects, finishing 22nd was good for the No. 11 team. Despite the fact that it was their first finish out of the top 10 since Indy in August, it was their best finish at Dover in two years. We said Hamlin had to be within 100 points of the lead after Dover, 108 ... close enough. So we will keep Hamlin in the top tier because, just like Montoya, Hamlin is coming up to his best tracks in the Chase.

Hamlin has never finished in the top 10 at Kansas but lately this has been his type of track. The converse of the No. 48 team, since Michigan in June the No. 11 team has not finished outside of the top 10 at an intermediate race track, including Chicago, where they finished fifth. In a late audible, Mike Ford is also bringing what they called the best car ever built at JGR, the car Hamlin debuted at New Hampshire and finished second. Next week Hamlin will bring the Richmond winning car to California. I like the car rotation right now for the No. 11 team.

My only concern with Hamlin is that he stays in the game mentally. Last week at Dover, Hamlin was upset about the tire selection and honestly let that bother him much longer than it should have. Bottom line, his disappointment about the tire is not going to change the tire for the weekend, so move on. Also his "disagreement" with Brad Kesolowski in the Nationwide race. You can't let stuff like that get to you when you are trying to run for championship in the big money series. I still feel the best is yet to come for the No. 11 team in the Chase but everyone, especially the driver, must remain focused on the big prize and not let the little distractions get in the way. (Continued)