Little change after Loudon; Dover could change that

If you could rank the tracks that drivers, on average, are worried about in the Chase, Talladega would be No. 1. No. 2? Dover.

Have you ever seen the start of a Cup race at Dover? It's big fun. Forty-three cars slamming down into Turn 1 (or "landing" as the teams call it now) and the cars just scatter from there, some run high, some run low, some run the middle. It's a cool sight ... at least for everyone not in a race car.

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To the drivers, it is a gut-wrenching, heart-pounding, white-knuckled few minutes until the cars can get spread out once again. Denny Hamlin told me, "it's like Talladega," until they can get separated from one another. Well, get ready for that scenario all day long with Dover seeing it's first double-file restarts on Sunday.

For the most part, drivers really like Dover; it's fun, it's fast and it feels like a roller coaster -- up and down out of the high-banked turns. But if you ask them, drivers are truly worried about what might happen at the Monster Mile, as evidenced by the many multi-car wrecks we have seen in the past.

This track just has a way of biting you when you least expect it; leading or running in the back, it shows no mercy. Every year since the Chase's inception, at least one Chase driver (and a few times more than one) has finished 32nd or worse in the Dover Chase race. Someone's Chase fortunes will take a turn for the worse Sunday; there are 12 drivers who just hope it is not them.

TIER ONE

Mark Martin (No change)

Mark Martin said last week that New Hampshire was "his worst track in the chase." Yeah, the New York Jets also said they had no chance to beat the New England Patriots. Good thing Martin and crew chief Alan Gustafson pulled off the "upset."

Now Martin is headed to what he says is, "one of my very favorite tracks on the entire circuit." Imagine what can happen this weekend. I've known Martin for years and he would always say this was one of his best tracks and no matter how bad things were in his career, he could always count on a good run at Dover.

Things are about as good as they have ever been in Martin's career right now, so the rest of the field better look out. Martin also is bringing one of his best cars, the one he won with at Darlington back in May. In the five years of the Chase, the New Hampshire winner has gone on to finish in the top five at Dover the next week three times. Bet that trend continues this year, too.

Denny Hamlin (No change)

Denny Hamlin's crew chief, Mike Ford, was really worried about New Hampshire. His solution? Build a new car, which he told me this week is, "the best car we have ever built at JGR." It worked. Hamlin finished second at New Hampshire and now sits just 35 points out of the lead, with one of their biggest Chase hurdles out of the way.

The next big hurdle? Dover. Hamlin told me this week that Dover is, "my biggest obstacle to win the title." Indeed, Hamlin has finished 36th or worse in his past four Dover races. But Ford lent this key fact: "the stats lie." In fact, if you dive down a little further you can tell that Hamlin has led laps and consistently ran in the top five at Dover, only to crash out almost every time.

Need to find someone truly worried about just making it through the weekend at Dover? Look no further than this guy. There is no doubt that this particular race in the Chase will be the most challenging for the 11 team; literally every race from here out they have a legit shot to win. If they can survive Dover with a top-10, Hamlin could very well be Martin and Johnson's biggest challenger in the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson (No change)

We all knew it would happen. The magical "championship switch" was flipped by Chad Knaus at some point last week and Jimmie Johnson, on schedule, delivered his first top-five finish since his win at Indy back in August. All kidding aside, the bottom line is this: in the final 10 races of the season the 48 team delivers, like it or not.

You can honestly expect more where that came from this week, too. Dover is one of Johnson's best tracks. Johnson has three consecutive top-10s at Dover and he won there in late May in what was arguably the 48 team's most dominant performance start to finish so far in 2009. Plus, there's more.

Goodyear will be bringing a new tire to Dover this week that feels "quite a bit different" according to the driver who did the tire test for Goodyear. That driver? Jimmie Johnson. Look for Johnson to be your overall favorite to win this week at Dover.

Juan Montoya (+1)

I had Juan Montoya ranked higher than most did last week; I saw the "go-for-broke" attitude coming from a mile away. Expect the momentum and confidence to continue for Montoya this week, too. There is something about teams who get things figured out at New Hampshire, specifically how to get their car to turn in the middle of the corner, that translates to Dover. Don't ask me how but it's true.

Montoya has never been spectacular at Dover, he's finished 39th and 30th in his past two races there but I would not count him out of a top-five this weekend. Things just seem to be going his way. (Continued)