Title contenders begin quest for Cup at Loudon

It's that time of year again. The Chase for the Sprint Cup beings this weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Each year my friends at NASCAR.COM dust off my writing skills (insert your joke here) so we can handicap the Chase field. The goal is not necessarily to pick the winner each week, but more to give you an idea of who might have the best chance to win the Cup, which as you know is a moving target during the 10-week Chase.

Just like many of you who drafted fantasy football teams recently (hope your Week 1 was better than mine), we tier the Chase drivers based on their ability to win the championship. We certainly take into consideration a driver's performance at each track, and the premise is to give you insight on the Chase contenders and their chances at a championship.

TIER ONE

Martin

Mark Martin, No. 5 Chevrolet

• Biggest Championship Advantage: Wisdom behind the wheel and young talent on the pit box -- a terrific combination.

• Biggest Championship Concern: Poor finishes -- seven finishes of 30th or worse during regular season; the No. 5 team cannot afford any of those finishes during the Chase.

If Martin was the first seed (which he is) or the last seed (which he is not), I would have him in my first tier of drivers. But with four wins -- and no Kyle Busch in sight -- Martin enters the Chase with a 10-point lead.

Think 10 points doesn't matter? Reference why Kyle Busch is not in the Chase. More important than the 10 points, Martin has been terrific at the 1.5-mile race tracks.

I have said it all season, Martin gets the attention he deserves but Alan Gustafson is the most underrated crew chief in NASCAR. As long as they can avoid mistakes, they have the consistency, speed and skill to win it all.

Hamlin

Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Toyota

• Biggest Championship Advantage: Momentum, consistency and confidence.

• Biggest Championship Concern: New Hampshire, the one Chase race that terrifies the 11 team. Despite a past win there it is a track they have lost the handle on.

That's right, Hamlin is a top tier contender to win the championship. When most people hear his name and championship in the same sentence they say, "Yeah, right ..." -- but I'm serious.

You have to look at the recent performance. Consistent, yet they have the speed. Strong at short tracks, mile-and-a-half tracks and restrictor-plate tracks; they have all of the tools.

The biggest key for Hamlin and the No. 11 team: Can they get through the first three races of the Chase within earshot of the lead? If Hamlin leaves Kansas within 100 points of the leader, they have a chance.

Plus crew chief Mike Ford and Hamlin spent much of the year working on small technique things -- corner entry versus other cars, working on Hamlin's driving style to make him more consistent lap to lap. It's worked. If you doubt me, just ask the other Chase drivers, they will all tell you: they're worried about Hamlin.

Johnson

Jimmie Johnson, No. 48 Chevrolet

• Biggest Championship Advantage: Been there, done that.

• Biggest Championship Concern: A mediocre August and September.

Johnson deserves to be in the top tier simply due his sheer dominance of the Chase during the past three years. Nobody has figured out how to Chase race better than Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus, period. And until someone else proves otherwise you have to believe the 48 team will flip the same switch again and they will magically be in championship mode.

This season however has been much more difficult heading into the chase. The much talked about "overall speed" just doesn't seem to be there right now. Johnson only has one top-10 finish since his win at Indy. Plus there have been a few uncharacteristic parts failures of late, just enough to make you worried if you are a Johnson fan.

The No. 48 team is still one of the teams to beat, but the door is more open than it has been in the past for someone to dethrone the champ. (Continued)