Picking a Cup champion: Johnson, Gordon perhaps

Isaid it before (click on story link below) and I'll say it again: Jimmie Johnson will make history by winning a fourth consecutive Cup Series title.

Nobody has the final 10 races figured out better than Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. This is where the 48 team goes for the jugular. Since the fall race at Lowe's Motor Speedway in 2006, Johnson has an average finish of 4.8 (irony?) in Chase races, including eight wins and seven runner-up finishes among those 26 events.

Making matters worse for the competition, Fontana is now in the Chase, a track Johnson has dominated since 2007 (two wins, an average finish of 3.2 and 493 laps led in those five starts).

Johnson is faster and hungrier than ever. He has the highest driver rating, has led hundreds more laps than anyone else and has the highest number of fastest laps this season. With a once-in-a-lifetime chance to stand alone in the record books, Johnson and Knaus will leave nothing on the table.

Johnson is the only driver to have made every Chase and has more than twice as many "playoff" wins (14) as anyone else (six). After stumbling in '06 (getting caught in a wreck at New Hampshire and being turned by Brian Vickers while going for the win at Talladega), the 48 team turned up the wick, dug out of its hole and emerged as champions.

With Johnson's championship resume and perennial clutch performances, the only team that can beat the 48 is itself.

Sure, Jimmie Johnson is working on his fourth consecutive title and Tony Stewart dominated the regular season, but when the checkered flag flies at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Jeff Gordon will be the 2009 Cup Series champion.

Gordon has been stellar at tracks in the Chase this season. First up is New Hampshire, where he finished second and led 64 laps in the spring. He also had a runner-up at Fontana (64 laps led), finished fourth at Martinsville (147 laps led) and won at Texas (105 laps led).

If he matches or improves on those stats, this is his title.

On top of that, Chase tracks are among his career best. Martinsville (6.8), Kansas (9.8), Homestead (9.9), Phoenix (10.9) and Fontana (10.9) are in his top-10 tracks for average finish with a combined 13 wins, 48 top-fives and 65 top-10s.

And unlike Stewart and Johnson, Gordon hasn't slipped recently. In the past six races, Gordon has four top-10s compared to Stewart's two and Johnson's one. Momentum plays a huge role in the Chase, and Gordon has it.

And isn't the man due? The 2001 season was the last time Gordon won a championship and darn it, it's been too long. Gordon is too good to keep down for a long period and with his bad back and family life, we aren't sure how much longer he's going to race. It would be nice to see one more celebration by one of the best drivers in the history of this sport.