Stewart dealing right now, but oh how things change

1. Tony Stewart has three victories on the season, leads the point standings by a wide margin, and will clinch a Chase berth by just starting Sunday at Michigan. Odds of him being able to close the deal?

David Caraviello: Right now, no better than even money. Hey, no question the guy has been good. But at this point last season, Kyle Busch was in even better position. At this point two years ago, Jeff Gordon looked unstoppable. We'll see what happens, but the regular-season leader doesn't have a very good track record as far as being able to finish the job in the Chase.

Joe Menzer: Well, he's clearly the favorite -- and rightly so. What he's done to date is remarkable, and there is no reason to think he won't be able to close the deal. But the question is, could he be overdue for some bad racing luck?

Dave Rodman: I really think this is going to be a battle for the ages between Smoke and Jimmie Johnson. They will run through these last four races, at least I hope, taking all kinds of chances -- as they present themselves -- to win and get more bonus points.

David Caraviello: I will grant you that Tony is using a lot of Hendrick equipment, and Hendrick's quality control is unsurpassed in the sport. So I don't expect a series of breakdowns like Kyle had last year. Of course, Johnson and Gordon will be using the same stuff. And the bonus point difference between Smoke and Jimmie looks to be negligible.

Joe Menzer: This may sound crazy, but I think the dark horse in the Chase may turn out to be Juan Montoya. I think once he gets in -- and now he's almost a lock to do so -- he might just turn it up a notch, or three.

Dave Rodman: More than anything this season, Tony has shown himself to be stable, consistent and no less of a driver than he ever was. That makes him eminently dangerous. Comparisons to Kyle Busch in 2008 aren't valid, to me, because Shrub is volatile to this day, while Tony is well beyond that.

David Caraviello: Well, Dave, I don't think Kyle's volatility had much to do with the way things ended last year. They just had too much stuff break, and not because Kyle was overdriving the car. The same thing could happen to anyone come September -- including Stewart. But again, Hendrick's stuff has a better track record for holding up.

Joe Menzer: Agreed on the fact that it probably will come down to Smoke vs. JJ in the end. And I think it will be close. But there always is one guy who jumps up there at the start of the Chase -- and I think that might be Montoya.

David Caraviello: Joe, are you on the Montoya payroll all of the sudden?

Targeted approach

After months of trying to force Juan Montoya to adapt to setups, crew chief Brian Pattie started tailoring setups to fit the driver. That has laid the groundwork for Montoya's rise to championship contender.

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Joe Menzer: Nope. Just have a feeling. And I've said all along that the dude can flat-out drive. I just think he gets it now -- and that he's been playing it somewhat safe to get into the Chase. Once he's in, all bets are off. Plus, their equipment -- at least with that No. 42 car -- has proven to be better than most of us thought it would be this year. They've been pretty consistent, especially of late.

Dave Rodman: Tony and Darian Grubb haven't "done it" yet -- as in winning a title -- but it's not hard to make comparisons between Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson and what Stewart and Grubb are achieving. This will be a great Chase and all things considered, they are the two prohibitive favorites. But Knaus and Johnson have done it, and that can't be minimized against a field that hasn't. It's well known how finely tuned Knaus and Johnson's Chase machine has become; and no matter how good Stewart is running, someone's still going to have to take that title away from them, in my opinion.

David Caraviello: My question is, what is everyone holding back? Who knows what Chad still has up his sleeve -- he's won this thing three times before, and plays the Chase game better than anyone. And talking to Brian Pattie last weekend, it sounds like that No. 42 team is going to unleash the hounds come New Hampshire. Right now they're hitting their number every week, biding their time. That's all going to change when the Chase begins.

Dave Rodman: Joe, I think your dark horse call is a good one. It's impossible to tell how much Montoya and Brian Pattie are points racing right now. I guess, until we get to the Chase, we won't really know, and it'll be interesting to see if they can produce in that environment.

Joe Menzer: And excuse me, fellas, for attempting to think a little out of the box and bring someone else besides the obvious choices of Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson into this discussion!

David Caraviello: A large shipment of fine Colombian coffee is going to arrive at Menzer's doorstep any day now!

Joe Menzer: But I don't drink coffee!

David Caraviello: You will, Menzer. You will.

• Rodman: Stewart, Johnson will be tough to keep down
• Aumann: Stewart has chance to join elite list of champs (Continued)